The NCAA’s “effectively zero” is a win for girls’ sports
The October poll calls the sports debate fiction, but its own findings show 62 percent oppose athletes playing on teams matching gender identity.
The NCAA's "effectively zero" is what a win for girls' sports looks like, whatever Pablo Torre Finds Out wants it to mean. On Oct. 27, 2026, Pablo Torre Finds Out posted, “Politics are winning on the back of fiction.”
The show then asked, "Why does 15% of America think there are tens of THOUSANDS?" ICONS answered the same day: "The truth is the NCAA has no idea how many men are participating on women’s NCAA teams1." But why is the NCAA's number so low to begin with?
Trump’s order changed NCAA eligibility overnight
Because the NCAA changed its rule. Until February 2025, the NCAA allowed transgender women to compete as long as they met testosterone limits on a sport-by-sport basis, Reuters reported. Then President Donald Trump signed an executive order seeking to exclude transgender girls and women from female sports, and the NCAA welcomed it for providing a clear national standard and said its Board of Governors would conform its policy. The change came in less than 24 hours and applied immediately to all sports separated by gender, according to Reuters2.
The NCAA's policy, effective Feb. 6, 2025, says a student-athlete assigned male at birth may not compete on a women's team. It also bars those athletes from athletic scholarships designated for women3. Member schools must certify eligibility, and the NCAA says the policy cannot be waived. Trump called it "a great day for women and girls across our Country2."
Most adults oppose gender-identity-based team placement
The poll the show promoted says the same thing about where the public stands. YouGov surveyed 1,417 American adults from Oct. 10 to 14, 2026, for The Bulwark and Pablo Torre Finds Out. Only 23 percent somewhat or strongly support transgender athletes playing on teams that match their gender identity rather than their birth sex4. Fifty-one percent strongly oppose it. Another 11 percent somewhat oppose it, bringing total opposition to 62 percent.
The show wants to talk about headcount guesses: 15 percent put the share of trans NCAA athletes at 1 to 5 percent, and 14 percent put it at 6 to 25 percent. Forty percent of respondents were unsure how many NCAA athletes were transgender. The poll also found 47 percent disapproved of former NBA player Enes Kanter Freedom's decision to declare for the 2027 WNBA Draft, against 30 percent who approved. That disapproval includes a majority of Harris voters, at 60 percent4. American Principles Project's "Defeating They/Them" report cites a November 2024 Napolitan News/RMG poll in which 75 percent said biological males who identify as women should not be allowed in women's sports events5. The voters who disagree with the show's side are not confused about this.
The rule still allows practice with women
The rule is not airtight. The ban covers competition, and practice is where the NCAA lets the line blur. Schools, the NCAA says, remain "responsible for certifying student-athlete eligibility for practice and competition3." Who checks the line between the practice floor and the game?
Schools must enforce sex-based team rules
ICONS says that question already has a name attached. On Aug. 1, 2026, the group claimed that Henry "Alice" Fischer, "a 6'5" man," was rostered on an NCAA women's rowing team. ICONS says Fischer participated on the women's team last season, and on Oct. 27 it said the NCAA knew nothing of him "until this tweet1."
It holds only where schools enforce it. Parents should ask their daughter's athletic director in writing: does the school certify every women's roster by sex under the NCAA rule, and has it checked? A yes or a no is all it takes.
Sources
- @icons_women on X, 2026-10-27: @pablofindsout @PabloTorre @Timodc @BulwarkOnline The truth is the NCAA has no idea how many men are participating on women’s NCAA teams. This guy was completely unknown to them until this tweet. How many more men are out there? The NCAA doesn’t know. They ht, 2026-10-27
- NCAA bans transgender women from sports a day after Trump executive order | Reuters
- Participation Policy for Transgender Student-Athletes - NCAA.org - The Official Website of the NCAA
- New study reveals how Americans really feel about transgender athletes - Yahoo Sports
- Defeating They/Them (American Principles Project, 2024)
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