Defeating They/Them

Key numbers

1. 40%

   of the Trump campaign’s ads in mid-October 2024 focused on “gender identity,” more than immigration, the economy or jobs (Wesleyan Media Project).

   In mid-October, some 40 percent of the campaign’s ads focused on issues of “gender identity” according to the Wesleyan Media Project, more than on immigration, the economy, or jobs.

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 3

2. $37M+

   spent by the Trump campaign on TV ads invoking transgender issues, nearly 20% of its ad budget (The New York Times).

   All in all, as The New York Times reported, “[t] he Trump campaign spent more than $37 million on television ads that invoked transgender issues, nearly 20 percent of its overall ad budget according to data provided by AdImpact, an organization that tracks political ad placement and spending.”

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 3

3. $77M+

   spent by Senate Republicans and allied groups on ads about transgender issues in 10 states, as of Oct. 24 (AdImpact via Axios).

   In late October, Axios reported that Senate Republicans and groups supporting them had spent “over $77 million on ads about transgender issues in races in 10 states, according to AdImpact data as of Oct.

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 4

4. $32M

   spent by the Senate Leadership Fund in Ohio alone on these ads.

   The Mitch McConnell-linked Senate Leadership Fund has spent $32 million in Ohio alone, hitting incumbent Democratic Sen.

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 4

5. 1.3–2.7 pts

   moved toward Trump by his first transgender-issue ad, in randomized trials run by left-wing activists.

   Left-wing activists who ran randomized controlled trials to study the message’s effect found the first Trump ad alone moved voters towards Trump by somewhere between 1.3 and 2.7 points.

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 5

6. 77% vs 29%

   of Trump vs. Harris swing voters knew Harris supported letting children under 18 transition without informing their parents (Blueprint 2024).

   In a similar vein, 77 percent of Trump swing voters knew that Harris supported “allowing children under 18 to transition genders without informing their parents,” compared to just 29 percent of Harris swing voters.

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 7

7. 41% vs 26%

   of registered voters in late October said Harris, vs. Trump, was focusing too much on transgender issues.

   In late October, 41 percent of registered voters thought that Harris was focusing too much on transgender issues, compared to 26 percent who said the same of Trump.

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 7

8. 74%

   of 2024 voters heard “a lot” or “some” about Harris’s plan to “protect the rights of transgender people,” more than almost any other campaign issue (Yahoo News/YouGov).

   According to a new Yahoo News/ YouGov poll, nearly three-quarters of Americans who voted this year (74%) say they heard either “a lot” or “some” about Harris’s “plan” to “protect the rights of transgender people” — far more than say the same about seven other policies that Harris actually campaigned on, such as lowering the cost of living for the middle class (51%) and securing the U.S.

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 7

9. 72% / 75%

   of voters say biological males should not compete in women’s sports (75% no), and 72% back making it illegal to give minors puberty blockers, drugs or surgery to transition (Napolitan News/RMG, Nov. 2024).

   Should biological males who identify as women be allowed to participate in women’s sports events?

   See it in the reportOriginal PDF, p. 9