Lyman Stone reports 50% fertility rise as marriage rates diverge

Stone’s post says the rise came among women 30–39 after 15–19 years of marriage; federal marriage-rate measures differ, putting family formation in focus.

Lyman Stone says fertility within marriage is rising even as marriage rates have fallen¹. Lyman Stone posted the comparison on X on Oct. 23, 2026. He said fertility at 15 to 19 years of marital duration had risen. Stone put the increase at 50%. The claim concerned women aged 30 to 39. Stone compared rates with 2008–10. For parents and lawmakers, the question is how to get more couples into the institution that is producing those children.

“actually rising in the U.S, and by a lot”

Lyman Stone

Stone wrote: “but marriage rates have cratered.”¹

Stone frames the trend broadly: age-controlled fertility within marital durations, he writes, is "actually rising in the U.S, and by a lot¹." How far marriage has fallen depends on which federal count you read.

Measured per 1,000 Americans, the CDC's provisional series put the marriage rate at 7.1 in 2008. The rate held at 6.8 every year from 2009 through 2012. It reached 7.0 in 2016. It dropped to 5.1 in 2020 and recovered to 6.0 in 2021. In 2024 it stood at 6.3, on 2,128,446 marriages, up from 2,041,926 in 2023².

The Census measure tracks women who married in the past year, rather than marriages per 1,000 people in the total population². On that measure the rate was 16.6 in 2012 and 16.7 in 2022. The bureau says its rate generally stayed between 16 and 18 per 1,000 women. The bureau identifies 2021 as an exception to that pattern³.

Couples continue to have children well into some marriages. Lawmakers should stop penalizing marriage and judge every tax, benefit and housing choice by one test: does it help young couples marry and raise children? Parents should put that test to every candidate who asks for their vote.

Lyman Stone reports 50% fertility rise as marriage rates diverge

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