Bier’s chart turns Trump’s immigration record into a midterm fight

On Oct. 10, Jonathan Keeperman quoted Cato’s David J. Bier’s Oct. 9 comparison—showing legal entries falling far more than illegal entries²—and called it an “Incredible accomplishment.” He said turning the immigration ship around was “the ultimate prize for this administration and always was.”¹

Kresses wrote,³

Mike Davis answered Bier’s post with “Amen” and “Elections matter.”⁴ Posobiec captioned his video with the line, “He’s cut legal immigration even more than illegal immigration.”⁵

“If you can look at this graph and conclude that we need to vote for Democrats or sit out the midterms, the only logical conclusion is that you’re a leftist.” Bier, of the Cato Institute, posted the comparison as a criticism of the administration², and other posters praised the turnaround and framed the chart as a midterm issue^{1, 4, 3}. At the midterms, candidates must answer for both the border record and the sharper cuts to legal immigration.

“Incredible accomplishment.”

Jonathan Keeperman

Bier reports 144,569 legal entries stopped, compared with 53,128 illegal entries. He says legal entries accounted for 73 percent of the cuts. Bier’s comparison makes the political point plain: legal-immigration cuts outpaced the decline in Border Patrol arrests and evasions¹.

For families weighing the administration’s record, the distinction matters: a border-enforcement argument cannot stand in for an account of what happened to legal routes used by immigrants, students, workers and fiancés. The chart’s political force comes from that comparison, not from treating every category of immigration as the same question.

Bier adds that his illegal-entry figure flatters the border side of the ledger, because it counts every Border Patrol arrest, including people expelled immediately. The larger cut fell on people who applied through the front door. Candidates who claim the border result as their own now own the legal-entry result too. A household with a citizen waiting on a spouse or child will measure the administration by that half of the ledger, and no candidate who asks for family-first votes should be allowed to skip it.

Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2026Pew conducts its survey
Oct. 9Bier posts the comparison quoted by Keeperman
Oct. 10Keeperman quotes Bier’s post

144,569

legal entries stopped in Bier’s comparison

53,128

illegal entries in Bier’s comparison

73 percent

share of cuts attributed to legal entries

Pew found that immigration was very important to 59 percent of registered voters overall. Among supporters of Republican congressional candidates, 72 percent said immigration was very important to their vote; among Democratic-candidate supporters, 53 percent said the same. The survey was conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 4, 2026, and Pew’s report said Democratic voters were more engaged in the midterms⁶.

The economy remained the top issue overall, with 84 percent of registered voters saying it was very important to their midterm vote⁶. But candidates cannot dismiss immigration as a side issue when nearly three-quarters of Republican-candidate supporters rank it among their most important voting concerns. The family question is whether the campaign for enforcement also accounts for Americans whose close relatives depend on legal immigration².

Bier’s challenge to the administration’s account is that illegal entries were already falling before Trump took office: he says southwest border arrests had dropped 81 percent from their December 2023 peak by December 2024, and 84 percent of that decline occurred under President Biden².

He also argues that restrictions on legal immigration reach American citizens trying to reunite with spouses, fiancés, children and other relatives². That is the cost a family-first debate must confront: protecting the border and putting citizens’ closest family ties first are not interchangeable goals, and policy should not leave those families out of view.

Candidates should speak plainly about both sides of this record: Bier’s figures show legal entries falling more sharply than illegal entries, and his account identifies American citizens’ family reunification as a consequence of the cuts².

As the midterm debate continues, parents and voters should press candidates to say whether their immigration policy will protect the border while putting those closest family members first.

Bier’s chart turns Trump’s immigration record into a midterm fight

Sources